The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
'The real money in India over the coming period is likely to be made in small-cap stocks rather than in the large-cap benchmark names.'
India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
The successful hosting of the 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi has provided a significant boost to the BJP, offering a timely opportunity to strengthen its narrative against the opposition ahead of crucial assembly elections next year. BJP sources highlight the BRICS grouping's strong condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack and the consensus declaration as major diplomatic victories for the Modi government, countering criticisms of its foreign policy. The party plans to leverage these outcomes during its month-long Seva Sankalp campaign to connect with various sections of society.
India's trade deficit reached a six-month high of $31.98 billion in July, driven by a sharp increase in imports, particularly crude oil, electronic goods, coal, and fertilisers. Both merchandise exports and imports recorded their second-highest levels during the same period.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautioned against the 'weaponisation' of technology and critical minerals at the BRICS summit, advocating for cooperation to foster shared prosperity. Concurrently, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans for an open-source AI ecosystem for BRICS nations, positioning Beijing as a key technology partner amid global AI competition.
Let's take a look at GDP growth around the world, including India.
The real gross domestic product growth is likely to touch 9 per cent in 2003-04 based on better than expected performance of the agriculture sector, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
'After that the burdens of an ageing population will be upon us, and the share of working age population will shrink.'
The BRICS summit in New Delhi brings together leaders from major emerging economies to address global challenges like trade disputes, geopolitical upheavals, and the economic impact of conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia. India, as chair, aims to position BRICS as an economic growth engine, focusing on the Global South's food, energy, and supply chain security. The summit also highlights the grouping's expansion and its growing influence in global governance.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday marginally lowered the country's GDP growth projection for the current fiscal at 6.8 per cent from its earlier estimate of 7 per cent. However, despite the downward revision in the economic growth projection, India will remain among the fastest growing major economies in the world, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the latest bi-monthly monetary policy.
'Why not aspire for 8 or 9 or even 10 per cent?'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
'The main problem the country faces is not low GDP growth, but low employment growth.'
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key policy rates for the fourth consecutive time, keeping the repo rate at 5.25 per cent, while the benchmark BSE Sensex closed 152 points higher in a volatile session, recovering from an intraday dip.
A working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) reveals a continuous decline in the rate at which foreign-owned firms invest in fixed assets in India since the FY20 peak, contrasting with a steady increase from Indian business groups.
'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.
An analysis of year-wise movements of average global crude oil prices versus India's GDP reveals no inverse correlation, contrary to wide belief.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
'You have to get private investment to somewhere between 35% to 36% of GDP. It is hovering about 30%-31%.'
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
Brokerage firm Ambit Capital has cut FY17 growth estimate to 3.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent and saaid there was even a possibility of growth contracting during the December quarter
The overall breadth was positive as 1,593 stocks advanced while 1,295 stocks declined.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
The government on Tuesday said it is focusing on putting the economy back on the 9 per cent growth trajectory from 7.4 per cent during 2009-10 and then further pushing it to double digits.
Economies of Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana may have grown at a slower pace than the national economy during 2022-2023.
This is lower than the country's growth rate of 6.7 per cent for the financial year 2008-09.
'Wages have not risen. Rural wages have stagnated. The growth was 0.7 per cent last year. For casual and irregular labour, the wage growth is negative.'
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
Goyal said India has been recognised as the brightest spot in the world in the past 5 years.
'A balance had to be struck between the economic cost of taking action at this point against the need not to fall behind the curve in controlling inflation and anchoring inflation expectations.'
The EIU said in a report on Wednesday forecast that the real GDP grew by 1.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in India, but noted that this uptick was largely owing to base effect.
Economic growth slipped to a nine-year low of 6.5 per cent last financial year, but India Inc fears further deceleration in the GDP expansion during 2012-13, shows a survey.
The Asian Development Bank too had projected Indian's economic growth for current fiscal at 7.4 per cent.
