'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.
An analysis of year-wise movements of average global crude oil prices versus India's GDP reveals no inverse correlation, contrary to wide belief.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
The Indian government has approved the introduction of one billion polymer banknotes in Rs 10 and Rs 20 denominations for field trials, aiming to enhance durability. This move comes as the Finance Minister also addressed Parliament on declining retail inflation, GST reforms, and other fiscal measures taken to support the economy and household consumption.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
Brokerage firm Ambit Capital has cut FY17 growth estimate to 3.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent and saaid there was even a possibility of growth contracting during the December quarter
The Indian rupee depreciated by 32 paise to close at 92.83 against the US dollar, influenced by escalating global tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, and the deadline for the RBI's instructions to banks to curb overnight positions.
The overall breadth was positive as 1,593 stocks advanced while 1,295 stocks declined.
Economies of Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana may have grown at a slower pace than the national economy during 2022-2023.
The government on Tuesday said it is focusing on putting the economy back on the 9 per cent growth trajectory from 7.4 per cent during 2009-10 and then further pushing it to double digits.
This is lower than the country's growth rate of 6.7 per cent for the financial year 2008-09.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
Goyal said India has been recognised as the brightest spot in the world in the past 5 years.
The EIU said in a report on Wednesday forecast that the real GDP grew by 1.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in India, but noted that this uptick was largely owing to base effect.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
The country's GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report 'Ecowrap'. The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31. "Based on our 'nowcasting model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent," the research report said.
Economic growth slipped to a nine-year low of 6.5 per cent last financial year, but India Inc fears further deceleration in the GDP expansion during 2012-13, shows a survey.
The Asian Development Bank too had projected Indian's economic growth for current fiscal at 7.4 per cent.
The European Union on Thursday said India will surpass 7.0 per cent growth this year and the new United Progressive Alliance government is expected to continue with reforms, including reduction in fiscal deficit.
Growth projections for 2013-14 has been arrived at by taking into account present internal and external factors.
During the six-month period (April-September 2019), the Indian economy grew 4.8 per cent as against 7.5 per cent in the same period a year ago.
Sitharaman's Budget missed deficit target for the third year in a row, pushing shortfall to 3.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal as compared to 3.3 per cent previously planned.
'It is not because of the war in West Asia, which began on February 28.' 'Petroleum product prices are already going through the roof. They are bound to have a serious inflationary impact.' 'A country's leadership is tested in trying times. It is here that the current leadership is failing.'
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile with a corrective bias as investors assess the latest flare-up in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and inflation data, which could reshape expectations for global interest rates, according to analysts.
After a contraction in the current financial year, India's economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year provided it avoids further deterioration in financial sector health, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday. The coronavirus pandemic will lead to shrinking of the already slowing economy in 2020-21 that started in April. Fitch Ratings forecast a 5 per cent contraction in the GDP in the ongoing financial year.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
'India's output contraction in the previous year was among the worst in the world!'
A majority of corporate honchos feel that reviving India's overall economic growth to seven per cent will be feasible in the next fiscal, a survey by industry body Assocham said.
It is pegged at 6.8-8% by various economists, as compared to 6.7%.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 6.3 per cent for current fiscal year 2023-24 from 6 per cent it had predicted previously. This is primarily because of a stronger outturn in the first quarter and near-term momentum. The growth forecast compares with 7.2 per cent GDP expansion in FY23. In the previous fiscal year (FY22), the economy had grown 9.1 per cent.
Natarajan Chandrasekaran, credited with stabilising Tata Sons after a boardroom coup and overseeing significant expansion, has announced his resignation as chairman, capping a nearly decade-long tenure marked by both successes and escalating tensions with the group's controlling charitable trusts.
Nomura has increased its March 2027 target for the Nifty 50 to 25,900, driven by strong corporate earnings and attractive market valuations, even as risks from the West Asia conflict and high oil prices persist.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal on the back of new investment proposals and additional capacity building by companies, economic think-tank CMIE said in a report.
Indian stock market indices closed on a mixed note, with the Sensex gaining 374 points driven by buying in Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank, while the Nifty remained flat. This divergence is attributed to a new Closing Auction Session (CAS) mechanism introduced by stock exchanges, impacting market liquidity and price discovery.
Describing the "lower agriculture output" as the "immediate challenge", Nomura said it could be a drag on GDP in the next quarter and on rural consumption. "But we expect urban consumption to rebound due to better job prospects," it said.
